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Decision Theory

August 31st, 2006 by fiorelino

Today in the office, I was busy with the term "Decision Theory" - well in german language is "Entscheidungstheorie". Actually I’ve already finished this chapter a few days ago before my chef went to vacation… I used Laudon book to write that script. BUT after reading that chapter again, I was confused, so today I looked at another literaturs.. Germans author .. wow … it was more clearer.. so I guess I should rewrite that chapter !!


The title of the 7th chapter is EUS Entscheidungsunterstütuzungssysteme or in english Decision Support System. Let see what I’ve been learned today … and if I understood all materials I’ve read.. in case you have any objection, please dont be shy to correct me. The examples I brought here are my own examples.

The Materials I collected were from (of course) wikipedia, a book from Heinrich K. Rommelfanger und Susanna H. Eickemeier:

 "Entscheidungstheorie – Klassische Konzepte und Fuzzy Erweiterungen“, from Springer Verlag, 2002, another book from Roswitha Meyer: "Entscheidungstheorie - Ein Lehr- und Arbeitsbuch", from Gabler Verlag, 1999 and another thin book from Peter Dörsam: "Grundlagen der Entscheidungstheorie - anschaulich dargestellt". Of course the script I wrote today is in german, but here I will repeat it in english.

The begin of Heinrich’s book was very nice. It begins with a poem from Goethe, titled "das Göttliche". You can see the whole poem (unfortunately in German) at: http://www.tossnet.de/SMKat/Goettliche.cfm. I will write only some that related to the decision.

Wiwientscheidung_3
Edel sei der Mensch            Noble are Humans
Hilfreich und gut!               Helpfully and well!!
Denn das allein                   Because of it alone
Unterscheidet ihn               Differentiates between
Von allen Wesen,                of all natures,
Die wir kennen.                  which we know

Nur allein der Mensch         Only Humans alone
Vermag das Unmögliche:    Able to make imposible:
Er unterscheidet,                He/She differentiates,
Wählet und richtet;            selects and arranges;
Er kann dem Augenblick     He/She can make 
Dauer verleihen.                 a moment to endurance

Well…. my translation is not so nice as the real poem from Goethe, who was born in 1746 and lived until 1842.

Okay back to the decision. According some books, decision is an act of choosing among alternatives for the purpose of attaining a goal or goals.

There are two methods in the decision theory: normative and descriptive.

In normative you make a decision based on logic, so it is also called rational theorie, because you use the rational to get your decision. The example of this method (I think and hope that I was correct) is the use of logic gate to make a decision. An easy example is, "I dont have money, so I dont buy a new cloth" - This "I dont buy a new cloth" is a decision based on a rational reason, that I dont have money. More complex example are in my second chapter about logic. The decision based on rational or logic should be structured, so it can be logically proven :-)

How about descriptive? This kind of decision need a long time to be made, because it’s about observation, experiments in the real world, so you can make a conclusions based on those facts or statically proven.

I’m wondering wether my decision "to go to german" is a normative or descriptive decision, when I’m not wrong, descriptive should be suppoted with statistical prove, so I guess I made a normative decision … coz I have rational reasons why I choose german for my researches. Do you wonder why? ok .. since it’s a blogging I’ll tell you why I choose german for my research’s place in this term (the reasons are randomly ordered, so not on priority based):

1. Live here is already stabil, it supports me to do the research
2. I’ve already familiar with the culture and language, so it will easier for me to adapt
3. I have a Chance to do the research in my current place
4. I have someone to get know better
5. I need a new fresh environment
6. etc.

back to the decision theory.

In the research area, to make a decision, a researcher need a model because it is impossible to make a decision of some alternatives by implementing all those alternatives in the real world. So we have to have a model to achieve the decision.

Damit die am Modell gewonnenen Erkenntnisse auf die Realität übertragbar sind, muss das Modell die für das Problem wichtigen Faktoren und Beziehungen des realen Systems abbilden. Die beiden sich widersprechenden Forderungen an das Modell - vereinfachte Abbildung und zweckgerichtete Realitätsnähe - kennzeichnen das Konfliktfeld, in dem sich die Modellformulierung vollzieht.

In order to be able to transfer the cognition or results from model to reality world, the model should describe all factors and relationships in the reality. So both modell and reality will have the same requirements.

Hmm… we or I (actually) already relearned about decision, type of decision and model for the decision. Now I will repeat about the basis model of decision theory. The basis model of the decision theory should have following information:

  1. Information über die vom Entscheidungsträger angestrebter Zustände or in english: Information about state of things from the decision maker.
  2. Informationen über das Entscheidungsfeld, d.h. den Realitätsausschnitt, in dem die Problemlösung vollzogen werden muß. In english you can say: Information about the decision field, that is a piece of reality, where the problem exists (problem definition).
  3. Informationen über die Lösungsmethode: Ist die Zahl der möglichen Aktionen begrenzt, d.h. überschaubar, dann kann die optimale Lösung durch einfachen Vergleich der Zielfunktionswerte ausgewählt werden. I would translate that as following: Information about methode of solution: If the alternatives limited, that is manageable, then the optimal solution can be made through a simple comparison of the value of functions.

Those things are actually can be found in every research paper, seminar work, paper work, articles etc. Sometime it is explicitely declared, sometimes it is implicitely.

Since goal(s) could be more than one, the goal it self could be as a  komplementär (engl. complementary), indifferent or konfliktär (engl. conflict). A complementary goal means,thru achieving another goal, there is other goal achieved - just like an indonesian idiom "sekali dayung 2 3 pulau terlampaui" .
Indiffirent and conflict are different. In these  goal, a goal coul have side effects to other goal, so we have to choose which goal is a priority.

Beside the goalsystem in normative, you have to see the field of the decision, you have to know following informations:

  1. Aktionsraum –> collection of Alternatives you have for solution
  2. consequence of alternatives above
  3. posible environment/situations of every alternatives

It meets also in every research area, in every business life ..

Well.. I have to continue the script again … in german of course, but before that probably I’ll sleep awhile, since my stomach is really full of "ala fiorelino noodle tomate onion sour cream".

Posted in Uncategorized | | | 1 Comments

PMS, dysmenorrhea and wikipedia…

August 30th, 2006 by fiorelino

I dont really know where this stress come from. Is it from PMS or from all deadline I have or maybe from the "ungewissheit" I have - well probably it comes from all of that.. whatever

Talking about PMS do you know what is interesting about the word PMS?

                               PMS(english) = PMS (german)

So you can use a word PMS in english (Premenstrual Stress Syndrome, Premenstrual Syndrome, Periodic Mood Swing) or in deutsch (prämenstruelles Syndrom ).

Thanks to wikipedia in english and in german, I could dig more information about the "PMS".

Premenstrual Stress Syndrome (PMS) is stress which is a physical symptom prior to the onset of menstruation. PMS should not be confused with dysmenorrhea, which refers to pain or cramps during menstruation (Source: Wikipedia) .

hmmm … so I think I have both PMS and dysmenorrhea. :-(

The Wikipedia said also that PMS is exceedingly common, occurring in 75% of women of reproductive age during their lifetime.

A more severe form of PMS is premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD). This occurs in about 5% of women. Both are characterized by symptoms of mood swings, depression, anxiety and irritability that occur prior to menses, usually in the two week period between ovulation and menses.

It is often accompanied by physical symptoms such as bloating and cramping

Hey those explanations made me realized, women is very strong !! :-)

In German Wikipedia, it has almost same definition:
Der Begriff prämenstruelles Syndrom (PMS) bezeichnet ein Syndrom von Symptomen, die bei Frauen einige Tage vor Eintreten der Regelblutung auftreten kann.

Ein Viertel der betroffenen Frauen klagen über ernste Symptome und 3-8
% dieser Frauen leiden unter einer besonders starken Form des PMS, dann
auch als Prämenstruelle dysphorische Störung. Die prämenstruelle dysphorische
Störung ist seit dem Jahr 2000 als Erkrankung anerkannt bekannt. so women could have an excuse not to work when she got her PMS or PMDS

ahh … what am I doing here? I still have to finish "the Scripts" .. tonight it must be finished !! … ok I have this PMS dont bother me so much so I could concentrate to my works .. only 3 or 2 chapters more then I’ll have it all !!…

Wish me Luck

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I’m bloggin’ again - 17.08.06

August 17th, 2006 by fiorelino

o je … when was my last blog? march 04 2006 actually…. when I was still in Indo, I thought I would like to document and share all events every night to all my friends, my students …..

I thought I would have time to do some kind of report about my self… so for those who miss me but dont have a chance to contact me, would know a little bit about my new life here …
and for me, blogging could be as a reminder to look what I have been done, so in the future I would never think as I’m thinking right now: "Did I choose the right decision?" "Am I in the right way to reach my dream?" "What is again my dream?" My own University with all facilities such as research laboratory, fitness center, sport centre, swimming pool or a humble small guest house with a small restaurant, which has german, italian spain and of course indonesian speciality :-)
Or probably just back to my old university and continue building a great young researcher oder leader for my beloved country Indonesia… btw MERDEKA!!  Selamat Ulang Tahun Indonesia …  it’s still 23:05 here in Bayreuth so I think I still could congratulate Indonesia …

Wiwi_1_1
Where were I? ah ja … my dream … hmmm … tonight I have a nice chat with two old friends JaS and SK from junior high school… It was great to hear or to read news about the old story (again) or about another old friends…   well.. I wish I could see them when I’m back to Indo …

speaking about wishes …

I wish my proposal is accepted, so I could visit Indonesia again … so I could meet my lovely friends … lately some of them sms-me and told me that they missed me .. They didnt know that I miss them badly too … I miss our trip to hmm to Karawaci … AmF, KIA sorry I dont reply your sms yet, coz I was in stress to prepare the presentation for Doktorandenkolloquim … I didnt sleep about 5 days !!
Well it’s a lie .. I slept .. but only about 2 hours … since saturday I prepared the scripts for the lectures until about 2.00 am until monday … then .. monday was also a hectic day coz I have to discuss the scripts with TiB…It was’nt stop until monday…. coz tuesday all member in our department went to Fichtelberg (you can see in album). We had to present our research’s thema. Gott sei Dank that I got the last turn. So after finishing the seminar at 20.00 and dinner + chatted until 00.00, I began to make my presentation … It was about application of Multi Agent System in the hospitals - well the title was "Einsatz und Evaluation von Multiagentensystem- Technologien zur effizienten Steurung von Organisationsabläufen in Krankenhäusern" or in Indonesian AMMAS-RUSA :-) Aplikasi Menggunakan Multi Agent System di Rumah Sakit - It was a successfully two and half hours presentation.. gemixt English and Deutsch .. na ja … meists in Deutsch… Dank an meinem Freund RS, who helped me to correct my German language :-)
The seminar or doktorandenkolloquim were 2 days … we were back on wednesday .. but .. it doesnt mean that I could catch up my sleep, coz my chef will go to urlaub on thursday, so I had to finish the first version of our script on thursday.. so again I was in front of computer more than 10 hours only to finalize the script… actually I would like to give also Übungsscript on thursday, in fact my RoS helped me to correct the language in Übungsscript but .. trotzt all those, I could give the Übungsscript on thursday .. today .. I was a bit scared .. but… TE told me it’s okay .. he was satisfied with my lecturesscripts .. he told me that I should take a rest a little bit … how nice :-)

After giving my scripts to TE, I went to Real to buy a present for my RoS, which will come tomorrow and we will celebrate his birthday in bayreuth…

After chatting with JaS and SK actually I would continue my Übungsscripts which has Wiwi Müller as avatar .. see the young lady’s picture above? it’s my avatar and also avatar of wiwi müller the hauptperson in my scripts, so the student has a scenario to do all tasks I give to them ….

but I just wrote only 2 slides then I dont know why .. suddenly I’m in the middle of writing something that probably not really important and waste my time … ouch .. instead finishing my übungsscript ….
But actually everytime I wrote a blog I got some feedbacks from some of my friends and also my students … well actually I can call them also my friends now, since I’m not their lecturer or dean anymore … HoW AnR when you read this .. do you realize that I’m thinking ’bout both of you, because you always tell me that you always read my blogs .. although sometime it’s hard to understand .. heheheh is my language really bad that you couldn’t understand what I wrote?  Mbak LiL who really deligent to write me … I’m so sorry I still dont have time to tell you story or to exchange knowledge … please send my best regards to all gundar members …. #

My little diamond who just graduated and already got job at Limas, .. miss you so much, how is your german BF? .. do you still have contact with chris?  I wish I could be there when you have your graduation ceremony .. but I think I could not come before 15 sep.

Bang Bee .. where r u now? still remember your lil sis? your lil sis dont play golf anymore … but she walk regularly to her office :-) and sometime if she has time, she plays also badminton …

AlE you promised me that you will write me all story about the accreditation .. still waiting of your report .. how is perth? or r u in melbourne? sydney? if you are in melbourne and in the grid field, probably you will know Raj Buyya .. he is the doktorvater of one of our guest, who will come on september and will stay here for about 2 months … probably you can also come here as our guest …. the grid people in our dept has a thema about reputation …

I’m writing writing and writing such as writing letter to all my friends .. hey probably you read this MasEdo or BaBus .. pa khabar??  hmm .. I think I have to sleep now …  I hope I could meet some other old friends again … SK you motivated me to write .. thanks yah …. She is a great writer I ever known :-) …
Gin .. hmm dont know why .. you just cross in my mind … how r u? do you already have smallGin? .. hmmm .. that’s it .. point .. udah capek
bobo
b
o
b
o

Pat Thal …. please share also about both of you yah … how siemens thal? salam buat cris yah .. or probably you read this cris? will siemens send you to germany? ,.)
udah ah ..
bobo
tschuessss

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